A Reflection of COP26 and the Future of Climate Induced Migration 2022

Luca Agostini

«Fears are legitimate, based on doubts that are fully understandable from a human point of view. Having doubts and fears is not a sin. The sin is to let these fears determine our responses, condition our choices, undermine respect and generosity, fuel hatred and rejection. » -Francis, Homily of His Holiness in the World Day of Migrants and Refugees, 2018.

Introduction

On the 31^st of October 2021, heads of state, members of government and international organizations alongside representatives of civil social and environmental groups flocked to the Scottish city of Glasgow to commence COP26. Hosted annually by the United Nations, as a Conference Of the Parties, it is regarded as one of the most important global fora for climate action and multilateral climate legislation since its 2005 ratification of the 1997 drafted Kyoto protocol which marked the first time a legally binding multilateral treaty addressing the issue of global industrial and consumption-based emissions and their effect on the world’s climate was proposed by the international community. Ratified by over 144 countries, the Kyoto protocol marked a shift towards bearing responsibility for the earth’s climate on ethical, environmental, political and economic grounds, the signatories therein accepting and bearing responsibility for the actions of their economy and society.

Since that initial ratification, a further treaty was implemented in 2015 known as the Treaty of Paris which committed its 196 signatories to a reduction of their emissions in order to meet the estimated maximum viable change in global temperatures of 1.5 C° and review and adjust their targets accordingly on a five-year basis. The COP26 re-affirmed these stated goals and committed their members to further stringent action (UKCOP26 2021).

However, the COP26 arguably mirrored many of the current social and economic inequities present at the heart of contemporary western societies with one of its lasting images being not the drafting and implementation of further climate legislation by influential political and industrial interest groups, but the fleets of private luxury vehicles chocking Glasgow’s streets in pursuit of ferrying delegates from one conference or hotel to another (The Telegraph 2021) which detractors labeled as being glaringly hypocritical and indicative of the nature of such an international conference in the face of a global movement towards restoring “climate justice” for communities who have done the least to contribute to emissions yet which will presumably face the greatest threat to their way of life and safety due to climate change induced threats and changing climatic conditions.

The example of the limousines lined bumper-to-bumper outside office buildings leads to questions as to whom was not invited to conferences such as COP26, indigenous and economically disadvantaged groups were not present and their voices were largely left out of many of COP26’s publications despite indigenous communities being one of the communities most vulnerable to climate change and who may have to be the first to leave their home and native lands due to the actions of the global industrial economy and all the resources it demands despite bearing the least responsibility for it (WMR 2022).

International migration is and remains one of the most pressing questions of our time with an estimated 3.6% of the global population, comprising 281 million people residing and working in a country other than their birth. The majority of these figures represents voluntary migration, individuals leaving their country for educational (5.3m) or economic reasons in order to increase their chances of social and economic mobility (UNHCR 2022). However, more concerning are the 89.3 million people making up those figures whose migration is considered forced, their migration not a result of their own volition pursuing economic and social mobility, but by circumstances out of their control including natural disasters, conflict, and human trafficking (UNHCR 2022). Regarding the past COP26 conference, and considering the decisions made by delegates and representatives of government bodies in the light of the upcoming COP27 in Egypt (6.11-18.11.22), this report will reflect on the decisions made during COP26 and the effects of climate change on the global south which will presumably be the primary driver of forced migration throughout the 21^st century as estimated by the UNHCR and the US Department of Defense which claims that over 143 million people could moving within their own, and other countries due to changing climatic and environmental conditions which may make their livelihoods untenable in their country or community of origin (US DoD 2022).

Stated Goals of COP26

The COP26 conference recognized the importance of multilateral cooperation and the inclusion of formally excluded and overlooked communities into conversations surrounding climate change and migration including the voice and role of women, children, and indigenous communities, all of whom arguably constitute some of the most vulnerable groups within society’s and are therein especially at-risk during periods of forced migration and human trafficking. The UK presidency of COP26 therein divided its stated intent into four overarching goals:

Ensuring promises on emissions reductions are kept to keep 1.5 C° alive
Delivering or climate vulnerable countries by ensuring commitments on adaptation and loss and damage are honored
Getting finance flowing
Working together and continuing to be an inclusive presidency.

These stated goals have been included in the Glasgow Climate Pact which mandated a continued commitment to the maintenance of a 1.5C° future and included four segments in which the micro-experiences of communities and individuals facing threats from climate change induced disasters remained notably absent:

Mitigation:

“Secured near-global net zero, NDC from 153 Countries and future strengthening of mitigation measures” (COP26 2021)”.

This expansive goal covers commitments from nations to unilaterally reduce their emissions by the year 2030 without stating clear sanctions in the case of non-compliance or clear pathways necessary in order to achieve that stated goal.

Adaptation and Loss and Damage:

“The Glasgow-Sharm-el Sheikh work program on the Global Goal On Adaptation was announced” (COP26 2021)

The crucial aspect of this goal includes the recognition of a discrepancy of responsibility and impact vis-à-vis the western industrialized world and the global south which will ultimately be most severely affected by the effects of climate change in the years to come. Funding and its allocation entails a fundamental part of this responsibility and will be covered later within the report, yet the strengthening of communicative and financial ties between organizations and states is crucial to the successful execution of this stated goal.

Finance:

Mobilized “billions and trillions (COP26 2021)

Allocating substantial amounts of private and public capital in order to reduce emissions is a necessary and crucial step in mitigating the climate crisis and, considering the contents of this report, may enable the majority of people vulnerable to climate change induced disasters and slow-onset temporal changes to remain in the country or region of origin through measures of mitigation and adaptation. The attendees of COP26, led by its host the UK, have stated that they are willing to allocate an annual sum of 100 billion USD in order to “catalyze private finance” (COP26 2021). The report from which this data is lifted seems to rely heavily on private sector investments and innovation in order to fulfill this goal which reflects the high degree of investment and growth in the sustainable and environmental sector within recent decades to an estimated 4.5 Trillion USD (FTSE Russel 2022) as companies involved in clean energy, waste management, and low emissions sectors have gained considerable market access from their traditional competitors (Harvard Business Review 2022). However, the high involvement of the private sector in securing climate funding entails questions as to the degree of responsibility governments and policy makers are willing to take in order to mitigate the climate crisis. Government spending is arguably a reflection of what a society and economic system values, making the degree of public spending afforded to climate change mitigation a partial indication of the true commitment of governments and leaders towards changing their policy objectives. The report states that it is “Likely 500 billion will be mobilized by 2025 (COP26)”, making true commitments of the agreement members elusive and non-binding.

Funding Allocated during the COP26:

-274 million USD: Support for vulnerable countries

-27 million: Disaster relief and resilient infrastructure

-100 million: Climate change adaptation and resilience fund

–67 million: Community resilience partnership

-150 million: Funding for locally led climate action plans

(International Development 2021)

Collaboration:

Finalizing the “Paris Rulebook”

-COP26 focused on re-assessing, and re-affirming previous commitments made during the 2015 Paris Agreement and the subsequent required shifts in public policy, particularly by western industrial societies who have constituted the overwhelming majority of historic emissions in order to grow their economies, the world collectively having expunged an estimated 2500 billon tons of Co2 since 1850leading to an 86% fulfillment of the estimated global carbon budget (Carbonbrief 2022).

Amidst these figures, overcoming national governments propensity for unilateral action and pursuit of thier national economic self-interest remains one of the fundamental challenges of implementing the Paris, and subsequent multilateral climate treaties. Currently, no single actor or bloc has the political will nor the socio-economic heft necessary in order to push other actors towards greater climate action, nor should it be arguably in a position to do so as the climate crisis is a global one, requiring the participation and consent of every party. COP26 therein focused on reducing emissions in key economic sectors which are traditionally high emitters:

Power: Making clean power “affordable to all” (COP26 2021)
Road Transport: Pushing for a global adoption of 0 emission vehicles
Steel: Production of 0 emission steel
Hydrogen: Ensuring affordable, low emission hydrogen is available globally in order to facilitate energy needs.

We continue next month with Climate Justice and Migration: Treatment and Dignity